Thursday, August 18, 2005

Disruptive Languages Toppling Java from Lower End?

The Innovator's Dilemma is a great book. It talks about how disruptive new technologies, though interior in many ways at first, repeatedly topple powerful incumbents in many different fields. Jason Hunter has a great post on this phenomenon happening to Java. It's real. Why? Because the number of people disgusted with the state of (complex) art of building (web) applications has been slowly increasing and is approaching a tipping point.

My own predictions:
  • Java, the language, will relegate to the C++ status in the not-so-distant future.
  • JVM, as a portable and fast virtual processor, will continue to flourish with many implementations.
  • Dynamic languages such as Ruby, Python, JavaScriptand others (maybe even Smalltalk and Lisp) , coupled with simple frameworks, will thrive to replace the cumbersome J2EE way of building applications. They will also improve rapidly to close in on any gaps with Java (the language and huge class library (or they can just reuse some of those libraries)).
Of course I am talking about the common case. There are even people using C++ today. I am glad this trend is gathering momentum quickly. I have been longing for simplicity for years.